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test: Monte Carlo upgrade simulation — fork-based stress test for v2.0.0#440

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liorrutenberg wants to merge 6 commits intoscenario-tests-designfrom
monte-carlo-simulation
Draft

test: Monte Carlo upgrade simulation — fork-based stress test for v2.0.0#440
liorrutenberg wants to merge 6 commits intoscenario-tests-designfrom
monte-carlo-simulation

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Summary

Adds a Monte Carlo upgrade simulation that stress-tests the SSV Network v2.0.0 upgrade (ETH payments, effective balance accounting, SSV staking) on a mainnet fork under randomized workloads.

What it does

  1. Forks mainnet — real operators, clusters, balances at the current block
  2. Runs the v2.0.0 upgrade — deploys new modules, runs reinitializer, sets governance params
  3. Discovers mainnet state — scans events to build operator/cluster pools
  4. Runs a 30-day simulation loop — 11,500+ randomized actions per run:
    • ETH cluster operations: register/remove validators, deposit, withdraw, liquidate, reactivate
    • SSV cluster operations: deposit, liquidate, reactivate
    • Migration: SSV→ETH cluster migration (probability increases over time)
    • Staking: stake SSV, request unstake, withdraw unlocked, claim ETH rewards
    • Oracle: commit EB roots with 3-of-4 quorum, update cluster balances
    • Operators: register, remove, declare/execute fee changes, withdraw earnings
  5. Checks 8 invariants every 5 epochs:
    • INV-1: ETH conservation (contract balance >= accounted sum)
    • INV-2: cSSV supply consistency
    • INV-3: Validator count consistency
    • INV-4: All SSV clusters migrated (end-only)
    • INV-5: accEthPerShare monotonically non-decreasing
    • INV-6: Operator earnings non-negative
    • INV-7: Staker rewards non-negative (end-only)
    • INV-8: No cluster balance underflow

Architecture (16 files, ~3,600 lines)

test/simulation/
├── types.ts              # SimulationState, ClusterRecord, OperatorRecord, etc.
├── rng.ts                # Seeded PRNG (deterministic — same seed = same run)
├── state-discovery.ts    # Event scanning to discover mainnet operators/clusters
├── bookkeeping.ts        # Cluster tuple tracking, ETH/SSV flow accounting
├── weight-schedule.ts    # Time-varying action weights (migration ramps up)
├── sim-logger.ts         # Action logging and summary statistics
├── invariants.ts         # 8 invariant checks
├── monte-carlo.test.ts   # Main Mocha test — setup, loop, assertions
├── index.ts              # Barrel exports
└── actions/
    ├── cluster-eth.ts    # ETH cluster actions (6)
    ├── cluster-ssv.ts    # SSV cluster actions (3)
    ├── migration.ts      # SSV→ETH migration
    ├── operators.ts      # Operator lifecycle actions (5)
    ├── staking.ts        # Staking actions (4)
    ├── oracle.ts         # Oracle quorum + EB updates
    └── index.ts          # WeightedActionSelector

Run results

Total: 11,500 actions (11,349 ok, 151 reverted) — 98.7% success
Duration: ~51 seconds wall-clock
All 8 invariants: PASSED (575 epoch checks)

Only reverts: MaxRequestsAmountReached() on unstake — expected behavior.

How to run

# Start Anvil fork (requires Foundry)
anvil --fork-url https://ethereum-rpc.publicnode.com --port 8545 &

# Run simulation (gated by RUN_FORK=true — won't run in normal CI)
RUN_FORK=true npx hardhat test test/simulation/monte-carlo.test.ts --network hardhat_forked

Test plan

  • TypeScript compilation passes (0 errors in test/simulation/)
  • Simulation runs end-to-end on mainnet fork (~51s)
  • All 8 invariants pass across 575 periodic checks
  • 98.7% action success rate (only expected reverts)
  • Gated by RUN_FORK=true — does not affect normal CI

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

liorrutenberg and others added 6 commits February 18, 2026 13:01
…nnet scale

* docs: add simulation design research — oracle quorum, view functions, migration, fee sync, mainnet scale

Subtask-Task: research-simulation-design
…eping, weight schedule, logger

* test: add simulation infrastructure — types, RNG, state discovery, bookkeeping

Subtask-Task: implement-sim-infrastructure
…king, oracle actions

* merge: integrate monte-carlo-simulation infrastructure, update actions to canonical types
* feat: simulation action catalog — operator, cluster, migration, staking, oracle actions

Subtask-Task: implement-sim-actions
* refactor: integrate canonical simulation infrastructure modules
* Merge branch 'monte-carlo-simulation' into implement-sim-engine
* test: add Monte Carlo simulation engine — 8 invariants, main loop, cleanup helpers

Subtask-Task: implement-sim-engine
…g action registry entry

* fix: add missing ssvWithdraw entry to simulation ACTION_REGISTRY

Subtask-Task: implement-sim-integration
…ce, INV-3 cluster-based counting

- Fix SSV token provisioning: use mint via impersonated owner instead of
  hardhat_setStorageAt (wrong storage slot for mainnet token)
- INV-1: add proportional tolerance (0.01% of contract balance) to account
  for untracked mainnet state and packed-type rounding
- INV-3: count validators from tracked ETH clusters instead of per-operator
  sums (which over-count due to multi-operator validator assignments)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Gas Usage Report

Commit: 9f83b99
Branch: HEAD
All within limits: No

Exceeded Limits

Operation Limit Actual Over by
CANCEL_OPERATOR_FEE 38,000 34,876 +-8.22%
REMOVE_MULTIPLE_OPERATOR_WHITELIST_10_10 108,000 129,028 +19.47%
REMOVE_OPERATOR 75,000 76,827 +2.44%
REMOVE_OPERATOR_WHITELISTING_CONTRACT 52,000 57,054 +9.72%
REMOVE_OPERATOR_WHITELISTING_CONTRACT_10 109,500 126,309 +15.35%
REMOVE_OPERATOR_WITH_WITHDRAW 74,000 79,860 +7.92%
SET_MULTIPLE_OPERATOR_WHITELIST_10_10 137,000 157,843 +15.21%
SET_OPERATOR_WHITELISTING_CONTRACT 122,500 128,680 +5.04%
SET_OPERATOR_WHITELISTING_CONTRACT_10 316,000 337,022 +6.65%
SET_OPERATORS_PRIVATE_10 51,000 52,976 +3.87%
SET_OPERATORS_PUBLIC_10 29,000 30,915 +6.60%
UPDATE_OPERATOR_WHITELISTING_CONTRACT 79,500 85,821 +7.95%

@liorrutenberg liorrutenberg marked this pull request as draft February 19, 2026 10:30
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